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Flinders Islet Race - Race Preview

Home 2026 Flinders Islet Race - Race Preview

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Race two of the Audi Centre Sydney Blue Water Pointscore could hand the silverware to whoever's timing is the best...

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Eighty-eight nautical miles to a rocky island off Port Kembla. And a forecast that will have navigators sweating, flicking between models.

On Saturday 26 September, the Audi Centre Sydney Blue Water Pointscore fleet gathers for the second race of the 2026/27 Pointscore. The Flinders Islet Race is short by offshore racing standards but not necessarily simple. The fleet starts at 1000hrs, threads out through the Heads and turns south. It sails past the cliffs of the Royal National Park and the escarpment above Wollongong, rounds Flinders Islet a mile east of Port Kembla, then races home to Sydney Harbour.

With Back 2 Black, Race 1 winner (NSGCYR) joining the fleet, Flinders Islet is where the series starts to take shape.

Back 2 Black.  Credit: CYCA | Ashley Dart

The forecast | A potential dream run?

The Start

Every model agrees on the start. A light north to north-easterly of 5–9 knots will be on the Harbour and along Sydney's shore. It builds through the morning to 13–19 knots, with more pressure the further offshore you go. That means kites up, and a VMG run south.

North to South

The question is what comes up the coast to meet them. A southerly change is pushing north, and the models disagree on when it reaches the turning mark (Flinders Islet). The earliest any of the models has it arriving around 1700hrs, and others run later. They also differ on how large the transition zone between the two breezes will be. On current guidance the southerly isn't huge, blowing mid-20s and possibly gusting into the low 30s. As usual these breeze changes and transitions are hard to nail down in advance.

That sets up a potential dream scenario. A boat that reaches Flinders Islet just as the southerly arrives could run downwind the whole way down, round the island, and run downwind the whole way home. Arrive early and you're beating north into the northerly until the change finds you. Arrive late and you're beating south into the southerly just to reach the mark.

The big boats will almost certainly be around well before the change, which leaves them a stretch of upwind work on the way home. Their clock stops earlier, but on corrected time the race might belong to the mid and back of the fleet.

So is this a small-boat race? Possibly a race for boats that love some VMG downwind work?

Animated wind forecast for the Flinders Islet Race start, 1000hrs Saturday 26 September

Forecast wind from 1000hrs Saturday 26 September.

Yachts to Watch

  • Moneypenny (Reichel/Pugh 69)
    The biggest boat in the fleet and the favourite for Line Honours. In a building northerly, the RP69 should be rounding the rock well ahead of the rest of the fleet. The catch is that the earlier you round, the longer you beat north waiting for the change. Moneypenny may take the gun and still have plenty of work to do on corrected time.

  • Porco Rosso (Cookson 50)
    A canting-keel Cookson 50 on a new program taking on its first offshore race, and one of the most intriguing entries of the season. Canting keels love a downwind run in some breeze, and this forecast could provide just that. Nobody quite knows what this team will do yet, which is the reason to watch.

  • Gusto (TP52)
    Under Lee Hawksley's new ownership, Gusto heads into its second offshore race of the season. TP52s are built with IRC performance in mind and often perform well upwind and downwind, and this crew will be looking to turn early promise into a result.

  • Smuggler (TP52)
    The 2024/25 Audi Centre Sydney Blue Water Pointscore champion knows exactly what it takes to win a Pointscore. A strong result here would be a clear signal that Smuggler is back in the title fight.

  • Back 2 Black (Reichel/Pugh GP42)
    First in the season opener (Noakes Sydney Gold Coast Yacht Race), Back 2 Black is currently the boat everyone else is measuring themselves against. The GP42s are quick enough to round well before the southerly, so Back 2 Black will need to defend that form through a stretch of upwind work.

  • Ambition (GP42)
    Ambition finished third in the opening race (NSGCYR) and has a direct benchmark in Back 2 Black. The two sporty-forties are likely to be within sight of each other all day. Every shift and sail change will count.

  • Disko Trooper (J/99)
    Disko Trooper dominated the first race with a huge scoreboard of results - watch the interview here. The J/99 should reach the rock later in the afternoon, much closer to the forecast change than the big boats. If the timing falls its way, and with symmetrical chutes it could be downwind down the rhumb line both ways?